Everyone likes a tight end! I’ve got the top ten for you!
1. Jason Witten- With T.O. gone, Tony Romo can focus on Witten as his top guy. He’s had over 900 yards the last two seasons and it’s not at all a stretch do do so again.
2. Tony Gonzalez- T-Gonz had over 1,000 yards on a sketchy team last year. Now he’s gone to a QB who played well for being a rookie and a team that could use a large red zone target. I’m not saying he’ll get 1,000 yards again, but I don’t think 8 or 9 TDs is out of the question
3. Dallas Clark- With Peyton Manning throwing the ball around, almost all of the guys catching said passes will be valuable. Clark’s been a dependable option for years and this year should be no different.
4. Antonio Gates- Have we ever seen Gates ranked this low? With all of the emerging TEs, Gates moves down the rankings. The Chargers will be running the piss out of the ball but I suspect Gates will be roughly the same as he is every season.
5. Owen Daniels- His receptions have increased every year he’s been in the league as well as his yards and Y/G. The Texas offense should be better with Steve Slaton developing in his second season. Daniels will get the yards, but AJ and Slaton may take the lion’s share of the TDs.
6. Greg Olsen- Gregory managed to be in the top ten in scoring in 2008 despite the shotty QB situation in Chicago. The Bears added Jay Cutler and still have no viable option in the passing game and Olsen should provide an excellent red zone target.
7. John Carlson- The Seahawks will be spreading the ball around quite a bit in 2009 with the addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh and a healthy Nate Burleson and possibly healthy Deion Branch. Carlson shined as a rookie and a talented player like that doesn’t go un-noticed.
8. Chris Cooley- Cooley benefits in Washington in the red zone as Santana Moss is a small target. Washington will likely be a run first offense so he may not rack up the yards, but should be a viable fantasy TE anyways.
9. Kellen Winslow- Winslow always seems to be hurt and moved to a team where Byron Leftwich may be the starting QB. Combine his durability with him playing for a new team with possible QB issues and you have him here. He’s got all of the talent in the world, but it’s unlikely he will show that talent.
10. Zach Miller- Miller put up 778 yards on a bad offense last year. His QB and top RB are a year older and Miller could easily rack up 700 yards and a few TDs on the season.
Here are the WR rankings for the 2009 season.
1. Larry Fitzgerald- Posted his second consecutive 1,400 yard season and third in the last four years while putting up 10 or more TDs in three of the last four as well. Usually receives 90+ catches per season so should be a good PPR option.
2. Randy Moss- I don’t think I really need to explain much. Healthy Tom Brady + Healthy Randy Moss = Fantasy gold. The only reason I have him here is due to Brady coming off injury. Moss could easily be the number one at season end.
3. Andre Johnson- Johnson is coming off a spectacular 2008 season where he put up 1,575 yards on 115 receptions and 8 TDs. All of this with his main QB injured for part of the season. Like the first two, AJ can move to the top of this list fairly easy and is a sure fire safe bet. Barring injury as always.
4. Calvin Johnson- The dude put up over 1,300 yards with 13 TDs in his second year in the league with poor QB play. He’s still probably going to have poor QB play, but will be a third year guy and you know what they say about third year WRs. As for his ceiling, see the rest of the guys above him.
5. Reggie Wayne- Reggie is about as consistent as they come and with the rest of the guys on this list, you’ll be seeing something that makes them less consistent than Mr. Wayne. Gotta love Peyton Manning’s main guy now that Marvin Harrison is really out of town.
6. Greg Jennings- In Aaron Rodgers’ first full season, Jennings put up over 1,200 yards with 9 TDs. He’s a threat on every play and should see his share of passes come his way. In 2008, he averaged 80 YPG. I’ll take that.
7. Steve Smith- Smith is already hurt but it may not be a big deal for his season debut. I like what Smith is able to do when healthy over the guys behind him. The big concern is his ability to stay healthy, however.
8. Anquan Boldin- Boldin missed four games in 2008 and still put up over 1,000 yards and 11 TDs on 89 receptions. He seems to have decided that he’s not getting anywhere in his contract talks and the trade talks have cooled. I’d be perfectly happy drafting him here.
9. Roddy White- 2007: Sketchy QB play. 2008: Rookie QB. 2009: QB that put up a good rookie season and still put up solid numbers across the board. Roddy White seems like a sure fire guy to get you around 1,200 yards with 7+ TDs and at this point, I’m happy with that.
10. Marques Colston- It’s hard to think that a WR being thrown to by Drew Brees would be ranked so low. Colston should be putting up 1,200 ish yards and around 10 TDs. He’s another one of those guys that can shoot up the rankings very easily.
If you drafted Jarrod Washburn in your draft that’s awesome for you. If you picked him up early this season when he was pitching great, that’s fantastic. If you picked him up last week because you haven’t paid enough attention and didn’t realize he was still available… you are me.
So now what do you do proud owner of a starting pitcher with all of one season in the last 6 years with an ERA under 4.32? I would try like hell to trade him.
Washburn is having a fantastic year. An ERA of 2.64 thus far, he has 8 wins, and has been very good while not getting much support from the Mariners thus far. So you might think that going to a team with a much better offense like the Detroit Tigers would do him good. Well I, for one, don’t think that’s going to happen.
Washburn for his career has given up HR’s at a rate of 8.5% of all fly balls, this year he is sitting at 6.4%. That wouldn’t be a big deal to a GB pitcher but Washburn isn’t that. Even being in a pitcher friendly park the last few years he has been 9.3, 8.0, and 8.9% respectively since 2006. Since his HR rate is so low, his FIP has been decent thus far, sitting at a 3.76 which is a run lower than where it usually sits. That number is totally thus far dependent on his HR rate. His xFIP (which normalizes HR rates) currently sits at 4.69 which I think is a much better indicator of his true talent. His LOB% is also quite high. LOB% is the number of runners you allow on base that stay on base or get out. Jarrod is currently sitting at 79.5%, he has hovered around the 70% mark the last three years.
There are other reasons why I expect Washburn to take a dive. The fact he won’t be playing in front of Franklin Gutierrez will most certainly hurt him, and going to a hitter’s park rather than a pitcher’s park will bring him down as well. The Tigers have a decent defense though. Brandon Inge and Josh Anderson are fine defenders, but other than that they are a pretty neutral defense. Washburn has been spoiled by Gutierrez and company in Seattle.
Washburn is a two start pitcher this week, so you have the chance to see what he can do before shipping him off, but you should do like the Mariners, and sell high, sell very high.
Well, it’s August third and I figured I’d dig into the trades and the repercussions they could have on the fantasy side of things.
The Cincinnatti Reds acquired Scott Rolen in exchange for Edwin Encarnacion, Zach Stewart and Josh Roenicke- If you own either Rolen or Encarnacion, I wouldn’t really expect anything different than you’ve already gotten from each player.
White Sox acquired Jake Peavy for Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard, Dexter Carter, and Adam Russell- Peavy’s value could take a hit with this trade. He goes from one of the best pitchers parks in baseball, to one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. Not only that, but he’s moving from NL to AL where he’ll be facing a DH instead of the opposing pitcher. Peavy is a dominant pitcher as is, so I’m not expecting a nasty regression. I am expecting his ERA to climb at least a half a run and his HRs to climb a bit. With the move to the ChiSox, he will have a much better offense to back him and a pretty nasty end of the game bullpen. The Padres get some depth to their starting rotation in return and if Chad Gaudin and Kevin Correia can be successful in Petco, I probably can. Left handed.
Marlins acquire Nick Johnson for Aaron Thompson- Thompson likely doesn’t have relevance this year and Nick Johnson’s trade value won’t trade much with the move. He goes to a better lineup so you can maybe hope for a few increased stats. But, yeah. Whatever.
Twins acquire Orlando Cabrera for Tyler Ladendorf- O-Cab could get a bit of a boost in the Twins offense with Mauer and Morneau, but I’m not expecting a ton from him.
The Red Sox acquired Victor Martinez for Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, and Bryan Price- The acquisition of Victor Martinez for the Red Sox is a bit of a puzzler, but I guess it won’t hurt. V-Mart will probably split time between DH, catcher and 1B and should see a minimal boost to stats. Justin Masterson may be stretched out to start for the Indians later on this season and if that is the case, he could be an option for deeper leagues. He’s been wishy washy in his starting career in the MLB so we’ll have to see how it works out.
The Braves acquire Adam LaRoche from the Red Sox for Casey Kotchman- LaRoche has always been a second half hitter and he’s moving to a better supporting cast in Atlanta and a team that could very well be in the running for a wild card berth. He’s absolutely someone to keep an eye on if you’re in need of a power 1B.
The Phillies acquired Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco for Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Lou Marson, and Jason Knapp- Lee moves to the NL where he could put up some pretty stellar numbers. He should get the run support he was missing in Cleveland which should drive his win total up a bit. I think the move only makes Lee more valuable. On the other end, I’m not quite sure what Cleveland has planned for these guys but it’s surely something I’d keep an eye on.
The Mariners acquired Ian Snell and Jack Wilson for Jeff Clement, Ronny Cedeno, Nathan Adcock, Brett Lorin, and Aaron Pribanic- Snell may be the only player with fantasy relevance of these dudes. Change of scenery + amazing OF defense + favorable pitcher’s park = fantasy value? I’m keeping an eye on this situation. Jeff Clement should have catcher eligibility in your fantasy leagues and if he gets a September call up, he may provide some decent value at the position.
The Tigers acquired Jarrod Washburn for Luke French and Mauricio Robles- Washburn is was the product of a stellar defense and pitchers park and is now going to a pitchers park with less stellar defense. I don’t think he’ll be as good as he has been, but I think he still could be useful in most leagues. Luke French is a 23 year old version of Washburn and may be in the starting rotation. Could he be the next Washburn? I don’t think exactly, but he may be useful. Keep watch over this situation as well.
The Cardinals acquired Matt Holliday for Brett Wallace, Shane Peterson, and Clayton Moretnsen- Holliday has been hitting will since his move back to the NL. Maybe he’s just an NL hitter? Maybe it’s the fact that he’s hitting anywhere near Pujols in a lineup. I’d consider Holliday to have a better second half than he did first. Which ain’t really a bad thing. Brett Wallace may not be up this year and if he is, it may be a September deal. The dude can hit and can’t field for balls, but that doesn’t matter to us armchair GMs, right?
The Dodgers acquired George Sherrill for Josh Bell and Steve Johnson- Sherrill went from the closer in Baltimore to setting up one of the best closers in LA. I think if anything were to happen to Broxton, Sherrill could be in line for saves. Over in Bmore, Jim Johnson could be in line to get the saves, but keep and eye on Danys Baez and possibly Koji Uehara.
As you can see, there aren’t a lot of fantasy relevant moves, but there also some that could have a big impact.
I have been slacking big time over the last week. It’s been in the 90’s and low 100’s all week and I’m working a 4 am to 12:30 shift as well, so it’s hard for me to get notes in when I need to get to bed before half of the games are over.
Expect me to get back up to the norm soon enough.
Over the last month, the sixth highest ranked starter in fantasy leagues is none other than Felix Hernandez. Now, this may be filled with a little bit of homerness, but I believe it’s well deserved. Since his last hiccup on May 19th, Felix has thrown 83 innings allowing 59 hits, with 12 earned runs, 20 walks and 73 Ks. Now, over his last three years, he has been worse in the second half of the season than he was during the first half. You could take this as a clue that he’ll decline, but you could also believe that it was just part of his maturation and he will be over it. I think he’ll continue to be a dominant pitcher this year and the coming years and I think if you can get him for cheap right now, you need to try. Felix for Cy Young!
Ricky Nolasco- 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 10 k. Yeah, remember that guy? I think he will continue this. Maybe not THIS good, but good.
Garrett Jones- 3/4, 1 HR. Jones hit his ninth home run of the season and Adam LaRoche was traded the the Red Sox. Jones will probably take over first base duties from here on out and I would own him in most leagues. Jones hit over 20 HR in four seasons in the minors and hit 31 in 2004. Just saying….
Paul Maholm- 4.2 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 5 K. I’m happy not owning him in any leagues.
Carlos Zambrano- Pretty unimpressive. 6.2 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 7 K. I don’t even have anything interesting to say. Are we expecting the Zambrano of old?
Adam Jones- 4/5, 1 HR. Jones has been blah lately. Could this be the start of a hot streak? Maybe a buy low point? I think he’ll be consistently blah from here on out. Not good, not bad.
Jorge Posada- 2/3, 12th HR on the season. If you own Posada, keep him. If you don’t, keep whatever you have. I don’t care for catchers, if you haven’t noticed (Unless it’s Joe Mauer.)
Miguel Montero- See Posada.
Todd Helton- I just realized how ridiculous the name “Todd” is. Say it out loud and try not to laugh. Anyways, Hit HR number 11 and is hitting .324. His BABIP isn’t much higher than his career average, so expect his average to stay drop a little but not much at all.
Matt Holliday- 3/3, 1 HR, 3 RBI. Holliday is raising his trade value which will be a good thing for fantasy owners. If Holliday were to be traded, it’d likely be to a much better park than his current home so I’m gonna buy on Holliday right now if his value is low enough.
Ryan Doumit- 2/4, 2 HR. See Jorge Posada.
Josh Willingham- 4/4, 1 HR, 2 RBI. He’s hit .321 with a .977 OPS over the last month in Washington. There have been slight rumors that he’ll be traded so keep an eye on it. If you need an OF, grab him up and use him until he declines.
Marco Scutaro- 2/4, 2 HR, 4 RBI. Another guy being mentioned in trade rumors a bit. I don’t think he’ll be any different on a different team. If you own him, keep on owning him.
Jair Jurrjens- This guy kinda sucked a lottle in the second half last year and he’s got a 2.67 ERA on the season, but his FIP is suggesting he’s pitched like a 3.79 guy. His BABIP is still a bit low and his K/9 is down and BB/9 is up. I’m sellin, yo.
When you actually sit back and think of all the first and second round picks that are either busts or are injured this year, it’s rather amusing. Of all of those players, there’s one that stands out as a player that was a bigger risk that the rest. That dude is Jimmy Rollins. Ranked number nine on ESPN’s preseason projections, Rollins carried the risk of 1. Repeating his disappointing 2008 season and 2. Being a bit of an injury concern. Now, I never drafted Rollins merely for the fact that I wasn’t a believer that his power would magically re-appear. Sure, chances are he’s going to steal 30+ bases and score 100+ runs, but that’s the kind of production you can get a little later on in the draft. J-Roll has been plagued by some bad luck this season and has had pretty consistent numbers but is just not hitting the ball for hits. He’s got a pretty horrendous OPS (.657) and I’m not too sure that will climb a whole lot more than .700. If you were to ask me what I think of Rollins right now, I’d consider him a buy low. He’s going to score over 100 runs in that offense and he should steal 30+ bases and if you figure that out, it comes to about the same as he’s been. Since his BABIP is low, expect that average to raise up a wee bit.
Robinson Cano- Cano took off this season like he was out to show all of you wrong who ever doubted him. Then he slowed a bit and now he’s remaining pretty consistent. He’s hitting .305 on the season. I feel a strong resurgence from the Yankees in the coming months and I think a big part of that will be Cano. Mark him down for another 8-10 HR while hitting about .300.
Nick Markakis- Another homie who’s been pretty mediocre this season and especially in the last month. He’s hit .276 with 2 HR in the month of July and currently has a grand total of 10 on the season. Over the last three years, Markakis has had a better first half than he has second half (in less ABs) and I suspect he’ll end with about 20 HR, 100 R, 100 RBI, while hitting around .290-.300. Not bad for a guy who’s not hitting for the power he should be.
Joe Blanton- 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K. Blanton’s always been kind of blah. He had one season with an ERA under 3.60 and during that season he had an FIP of 4.43, suggesting he was pitching a ways over his head. His K/9 is up a bit this year and his BB/9 is down but that K rate has never been that high in his career over an extended amount of time so I’m not expecting it to stay like that. His current FIP suggest he’s a 4.72 ERA guy and I believe it.
Rich Harden- It’s kind of funny that I just realized that his name is a little inappropriate. Ya know, what’s the full version of the name “Rich?” Now what’s another name for Richard? Yeah, say the full name out loud. Ok, I’m done being immature for a second. So far this year, Harden’s been like your first car. When he’s working properly, he’s sufficient but when he’s not working properly, he’s really not. I don’t even want to give analysis on him, he’ll probably just tear his jaw muscle or something and be out for the rest of the season.
Jayson Werth- 2/3, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 3 BB. I keep telling you he’s going to be a 30/20 guy!
Prince Fielder- 2/4, Too bad he plays in the same league as the machine or he’d probably win an MVP award.
Miguel Cabrera- He’s been rather quiet considering he was a lot of people’s MVP winner in the preseason. Last season in the second half he went absolutely bananas and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he did it again.
Cliff Lee- Back to back CG’s with one earned in each. He’s had a pretty miserable offense behind him all season which can account for a lot of the losses. I’m not so sure he’ll get to 15 wins this year and if he can’t do that, you can count him out of the Cy Young race.
Brett Cecil- Pitched against Lee and had the better game (unless your league is ridiculous and counts CGs as a stat.) 7 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 9 K. He’s a high upside, rookie so he’s going to be hit or miss. I wouldn’t have any issues if you wanted to take a shot at owning him and play the matchups well. But, I also have no problems if you own Armando Galarraga since it’s not my team you’re ruining.
Brian McCann-2/3, 1 HR, 4 RBI. I wonder if his doctor prescribed him with David Ortiz’s eye drops to go along with those nifty safety glasses he wears. Well, no complaints from me, you’re the effin man, dude. If you own McCann, be happy. If you don’t own McCann, be happy you didn’t draft a catcher high in the draft.
Josh Beckett- 8 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 7 K. Beckett, a few more starts like this and Felix Hernandez will be marking off one more dude off his Cy Young competition list. Ian, you’re showing your inner homer. Excuse me?
C.J. Wilson- Got the save as Frank Francisco battles pneumonia. Nothing exciting about this at all.
Albert Pujols- What? Albert only had one base hit today?
Wandy Rodriguez- Is it time to believe Wayrod is for real yet? If for real you mean a 3.50 ER pitcher with an 8ish K/9, then yes. It is time! He’s got a few stinkers left in him this year.
Gordon Beckham- I’ll admit, I wasn’t a fan of Beckham earlier on. But his recent play has really opened my eyes and shown me that he may actually be ownable. Don’t rule out a large slump though. After all, he’s a rookie. But a good rookie. See what I did there? I got you all in a pickle.
Justin Upton- Hit his third triple of the season. I am telling you, the dude can do it all. Just wait until he becomes a perennial first rounder and you’ll thank me.
Chad Gaudin- Alright, I’m officially pissed. Gaudin the recent K machine + the Marlins (a notoriously free swinging team) + Petco park = Gaudin lights out? Wrong. How about 6 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 3 K. Ugh. How dare you.
I’ve had it for tonight. Eff you Gaudin.
1. Adrian Peterson- Yo Adrian! Arguably the most talented player in the NFL, Peterson continues his quest to become a 2,000 yard rusher, joining Barry Sanders and O.J. Simpson among few others. In 2008, Peterson rushed for 1,760 yards, leading the NFL in YPG. Peterson should be the highest scoring running back in standard leagues. Since he does have a large frame for a running back, be aware that he could easily fall victim to more knee and lower body issues. Projection: 1,730 rush yards, 160 reception yards and 15 TDs on the season. Basically the same as last season.
2. Maurice Jones-Drew- While he’s never topped 1,000 yards rushing, Jones-Drew has always been a valuable fantasy option. Over the short (pun intended) career, MJD has been sharing duties with Fred Taylor, who has since left via free agency. Maurice should see over 1,000 yard rushing and near the same amount of reception yards and could account for 15+ TDs this season. Projection: 1,250 yards rushing, 650 reception yards, 18 TDs.
3. Michael Turner- Always shadowed by LaDainian Tomlinson, Turner was finally given his time in the spotlight and quickly made the best of it, rushing for over 200 yards in his first game with the team and again in the last regular season game. Turner received the vast majority of the carries in 2008 with 375 and that causes a bit of an injury concern, but I am confident he’ll remain healthy enough to be the #3 running back on our list. Projection: 1,480 yards rushing, 68 yards receiving and 14 TDs.
4. Steven Jackson- Jackson is quickly becoming the Rich Harden of football. He’s a guy you love when he’s healthy and he’s a guy that breaks your heart usually once a season. Surprisingly, Jackson only missed four games last season and finished with 432 yards rushing in his last four games. Jackson is one of the most talented backs in the league but his biggest problem is durability. If Jackson were completely healthy, he’d be considered for the top spot in the league. But something (track record) tells me that’s kinda unlikely. Projection: 1,390 yards rushing, 350 yards receiving, 12 TDs.
5. Matt Forte- If an all around running back is your forte, then Forte’s your dude. In his first season, Forte exceeded expectations by putting up 1,715 all-purpose yards and scoring 12 TDs. Forte averaged only 3.9 YPC on an offense in need of a QB and the Bears got that in Jay Cutler. The fact that the Bears don’t have too many great receivers for Cutler to throw to, a season mirroring last year seems highly plausible for Forte. Projection: 1,220 yards rushing, 560 yards receiving, 12 TDs.
6. LaDainian Tomlinson- As much as I think LT is done, I have a feeling he’s not quite ready. After being the best RB in the land for years, LT fizzled out with injuries and a 3.8 YPC. Even in a down year, LT put up numbers you wouldn’t see from half of the league. LT’s 3 90+ yard games to finish the season showed he still can be effective. Projection: 1,200 yards rushing, 400 yards receiving, 13 TDs.
7. Clinton Portis- Portis topped 1,400 yards rushing for the fourth time in his career last year, averaging 4.3 YPC. While he’s always been an elite talent at running back when healthy, Portis tends to miss games every now and then or has a nagging injury. He’s been healthy the last two seasons and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it from him again this season. The only reason I have him ranked this low is because of injury concerns. Projection: 1,350 rushing yards, 330 reception yards, 13 TDs.
8. Steve Slaton- Despite being undersized for a running back, Slaton put up a 4.8 YPC average totalling 1,282 yards with 10 total TDs. There’s really nobody else in Houston that can take carries from Slaton and I expect him to be a viable fantasy option this season. Projection: 1,230 rushing yards, 440 receiving yards, 11 TDs.
9. Chris Johnson- In his first full season, Johnson totalled 1,488 yards with 10 scores. The 4.9 YPC ranked 3rd among RBs with over 200 carries. Of the backs that rushed for over 4.5 YPC (with more than 200 carries) Johnson had the second lowest number of 20+ yard rushes and the fourth lowest 40+ yard rushes. He’s consistently making decent gains and while he has crazy awesome speed, he’s not totally been the HR threat you’d expect. With fatty LenDale White in town, Chris will lose a lot of his carries, but he’ll still remain valuable in fantasy football in 2009. Projection: 1,280 yards rushing, 300 yards receiving, 9 TDs.
10. Brian Westbrook- I’m going against my better judgement here because Westbrook has all of the talent in the world, but he’s one hiccup away from blowing a knee. The Eagles went out and grabbed LeSean McCoy in the draft and seem to like him as the next running back in Philly. Westbrook can be a top five running back when healthy. The key words: ‘when healthy.” He recently had ankle surgery and any position that uses ankles like running back, you’d got to be cautious of. Projection: 970 rushing yards, 500 reception yards and 12 TDs.
Jason Marquis is an all-star. I repeat, Jason Marquis is an all star. If you saw this coming before the season good for you. It was you and 35 of Jason’s closest family and friends. There is just no way anyone could have seen this coming, but at the break he leads the NL with 11 wins. The question Marquis owners have to be asking themselves is will it last?
I doubt it. He really hasn’t pitched that well. His ERA sits 22nd in the NL, but that does come from pitching at Coor’s. Marquis though has always been a first half pitcher. In 2007 he posted a 3.67 ERA in the first half for the Cubs, only to fall off with a 5.73 after the break. 2005 was very similar, though not as bad. Jason has though been able to have a strong second half.
In 2004 he posted a 3.52 ERA post ASB. That was Marquis’ best year posting a 3.71 ERA on the year with 15 victories. That is really the only year his second half has been better than his first. For his career his second half ERA is nearly a run worse than his first half ERA.
The one thing that Jason has going for him is that this is his best year FIP wise. He usually sits mid to high 4’s, but this year posts a 4.07. ZiPS doesnt trust him too much in the second half putting him at a 4.68 FIP, with a 4.89 ERA for the second half.
Personally I would be happy with what I have gotten and move on. Marquis is a decent first half pitcher but almost always struggles in the second half. I wouldn’t cut him, but I would try to trade him while he is hot, and be very quick with the hook in the second half. If you see a bad game or two in a row, the real Jason Marquis might be showing its ugly head.
I guess the question you have to ask yourself is: Do you trust some fancy computer or do you trust Jason Marquis? I will take the computer.
Well, I’m in a league that is extremely impatient and is already participating in and offline draft and it’s the All Star break so I figured I’d get a bit of football in. Here’s my top 10 QB for yearly leagues (with guys on bye weeks the same time so you know not to take them as a backup.)
1. Drew Brees-Brees has been an elite QB for the past few years and I don’t see him slowing down any time soon. He’s thrown for over 4400 yards the last three season and threw over 5000 last season with 34 TDs and 17 INTs. It also should be noted that at home, Brees put up a QB rating of 115.1, throwing 23 TDs and 5 INTs. His home schedule is as follows: Cincinnati, Miami, Detroit, NY Jets, NY Giants, Atlanta, Carolina, New England, Dallas and Tampa Bay. Kind of a tough schedule, but that leaves a fair amount of easier teams on away games. Houston, Oakland, Philly, Buffalo, Miami, St. Louis, Tampa, Washington, Atlanta and Carolina. It’s not a very easy schedule, but I think Brees is good enough to be a solid fantasy contributor. Other QBs on a BYE: Cutler, Rodgers, Rivers. Luckily, you probably won’t own them if you own Brees.
2. Tom Brady-Last season, the Patriots seemed like sure fire Superbowl participants up until the first game of the season where Tom Brady was eliminated for the with severe knee damage that required surgery. It’s been almost an entire year and Brady should be back to top form this season. By top form, I don’t mean 50 TDs, I mean 30-36 TDs. If not for the Patriots semi-rough schedule, he could be the top QB this year. Don’t be surprised if he is, I just don’t want to rank a guy coming off major surgery as the top anything. Unless it’s Albert Pujols, then I’d likely rank him top everything. Other QBs on a BYE: Carson Palmer, Matt Cassel, Ben Roethlisberger, Byron Leftwich/JoshFreeman/Some random vagrant, Jason Campbell.
3. Peyton Manning- Manning also had a bit of a down year, putting up four less TDs than his previous two seasons with a QB rating at it’s lowest since 2002. Manning lost his go to guy in Marvin Harrison but still has Reggie Wayne and the emerging Anthony Gonzalez. I expect another fairly consistent season with 4000+ yards and roughly 30 TDs from Manning. Other QBs on a BYE: Tony Romo, Chad Pennington, Shaun Hill/Alex Smith.
4. Aaron Rodgers- Last year in his first full season, Rodgers went only one game without passing or rushing for a touchdown and had a QB rating of 93.8 on the season. Expect Rodgers to get more comfortable with his role as well as his receivers in 2009 and possibly put up numbers around those of the previously mentioned field generals. Other QBs on a BYE: Jay Cutler, Drew Brees, P. Rivers.
5. Kurt Warner- Kurt Warner is an old dude, but can still throw the ball and plays for a super pass happy offense. I can see Warner putting up better passing numbers than Rodgers, but being far less mobile and more injury prone. You also have to remember that the Cardinals have a former first round draft pick sitting on the bench in Matt Leinart, although Warner will have to be the guy if this team wants to make it back to the playoffs again. Other WBs on a BYE: Matt Ryan, Jake Delhomme, Donovan McNabb.
6. Tony Romo-Romo lost arguably the most talented receiver in the NFL in Terrell Owens. Luckily for him, Jerry Jones bought very high on another guy to take his place in Roy Williams.Even though Brandon Jacobs doesn’t agree, I think Tony Romo will be a very useful QB for the upcoming season, even with losing his star receiver. You have to remember he’s got one of the better tight ends in the NFL and apparently he favors him strongly. Maybe his ditching of Jessica Simpson will keep him a little less distracted this season. Mark Romo down for 4000+ yards and 26-30 TDs. Other QBs on a BYE: Peyton Manning, Chad Pennington, Shaun Hill/Alex Smith.
7. Phillip Rivers-P. Rivers has all the tools in the world to be a successful QB in the NFL and in his third season as a full time starter, put up 4,000 yards with a 35/15 turnover ratio. If you were to ask me what I expect of Rivers (Although you shouldn’t because I will tell you anyways) I would say he can get near 4,000 yards, but I’m not counting on another 35 TDs. Should LT remain healthy, he will take away the need to pas the ball as often and add another threat to the field. Other QBs on a BYE: Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees.
8. Donovan McNabb-McNabb has always been one of those dudes that when healthy, can provide you with top five talent. The problem with that is that he’s not always healthy. Last year, McNabb was healthy and provided just mediocre stats. He had a QB rating of 86.4, threw for 3916 yards and had a TD/turnover ratio of 25/16. Now that I think about it, McNabb’s always been about this good but he does have some pretty huge games once in a blue moon. I surely wouldn’t be excited owning him, but I wouldn’t be disappointed. Other QBs on a BYE: Kurt Warner, Matt Ryan, Jake Delhomme.
9. Jay Cutler- Cutler has always played in a run first offense in the NFL, except that offense couldn’t really run. He had decent receivers in 2008 in Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall and now that he’s moved to Chicago, he’s got the man that can really only return kicks in Devin Hester. Luckily, Cutler’s got up and coming tight end Greg Olsen(don’t be surprised if he’s the team’s leading receiver.) You can safely expect Cutler to throw for around 3,800 yards and 25-29 TDs. Cutler also has upside in his mobility and if he can’t find a receiver open, you know he’s going to move. Other QBs on a BYE: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, P. Rivers.
10. Matt Ryan-Atlanta was a run first team last year with Matt Ryan learning and Michael Turner burning (clever, eh?) They went and added a large endzone target in Tony Gonzalez as well. While he only threw for over 300 yards twice last season, he remained fairly decent (considering he was a rookie with no NFL experience) controlling his INTs. If you’re in keeper or dynasty leagues, I think Ryan moves up a ways. But for this season, I’m still not feeling confident enough to rank him above Jay Cutler’s upside and McNabb’s NFL experience. Other QBs on a BYE: Kurt Warner, Jake Delhomme, Donovan McNabb.