Sorry folks.

I know. I fail.

I have been slacking big time over the last week. It’s been in the 90′s and low 100′s all week and I’m working a 4 am  to 12:30 shift as well, so it’s hard for me to get notes in when I need to get to bed before half of the games are over.

Expect me to get back up to the norm soon enough.

It’s good to be King.

Over the last month, the sixth highest ranked starter in fantasy leagues is none other than Felix Hernandez. Now, this may be filled with a little bit of homerness, but I believe it’s well deserved. Since his last hiccup on May 19th, Felix has thrown 83 innings allowing 59 hits, with 12 earned runs, 20 walks and 73 Ks. Now, over his last three years, he has been worse in the second half of the season than he was during the first half. You could take this as a clue that he’ll decline, but you could also believe that it was just part of his maturation and he will be over it. I think he’ll continue to be a dominant pitcher this year and the coming years and I think if you can get him for  cheap right now, you need to try. Felix for Cy Young!

Ricky Nolasco- 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 10 k. Yeah, remember that guy? I think he will continue this. Maybe not THIS good, but good.

Garrett Jones- 3/4, 1 HR. Jones hit his ninth home run of the season and Adam LaRoche was traded the the Red Sox. Jones will probably take over first base duties from here on out and I would own him in most leagues. Jones hit over 20 HR in four seasons in the minors and hit 31 in 2004. Just saying….

Paul Maholm- 4.2 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 5 K. I’m happy not owning him in any leagues.

Carlos Zambrano- Pretty unimpressive. 6.2 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 7 K. I don’t even have anything interesting to say. Are we expecting the Zambrano of old?

Adam Jones- 4/5,  1 HR. Jones has been blah lately. Could this be the start of a hot streak? Maybe a buy low point? I think he’ll be consistently blah from here on out. Not good, not bad.

Jorge Posada- 2/3, 12th HR on the season. If you own Posada, keep  him. If you don’t, keep whatever you have. I don’t care for catchers, if you haven’t noticed (Unless it’s Joe Mauer.)

Miguel Montero- See Posada.

Todd Helton- I just realized how ridiculous the name “Todd” is. Say it out loud and try not to laugh. Anyways, Hit HR number 11 and is hitting .324. His BABIP isn’t much higher than his career average, so expect his average to stay drop a little but not much at all.

Matt Holliday- 3/3, 1 HR, 3 RBI. Holliday is raising his trade value which will be a good thing for fantasy owners. If Holliday were to be traded, it’d likely be to a much better park than his current home so I’m gonna buy on Holliday right now if his value is low enough.

Ryan Doumit- 2/4, 2 HR. See Jorge Posada.

Josh Willingham- 4/4, 1 HR, 2 RBI. He’s hit .321 with a .977 OPS over the last month in Washington. There have been slight rumors that he’ll be traded so keep an eye on it. If you need an OF, grab him up and use him until he declines.

Mets- LOL.

Marco Scutaro- 2/4, 2 HR, 4 RBI. Another guy being mentioned in trade rumors a bit. I don’t think he’ll be any different on a different team. If you own him, keep on owning him.

Jair Jurrjens- This guy kinda sucked a lottle in the second half last year and he’s got a 2.67 ERA on the season, but his FIP is suggesting he’s pitched like a 3.79 guy. His BABIP is still a bit low and his K/9 is down and BB/9 is up. I’m sellin, yo.

Roll with Rollins

Yes! I love these baseball to the face pictures. You can totally see the agony he's feeling from that botched bunt attempt.

When you actually sit back and think of all the first and second round picks that are either busts or are injured this year, it’s rather amusing. Of all of those players, there’s one that stands out as a player that was a bigger risk that the rest. That dude is Jimmy Rollins. Ranked number nine on ESPN’s preseason projections, Rollins carried the risk of 1. Repeating his disappointing 2008 season and 2. Being a bit of an injury concern. Now, I never drafted Rollins merely for the fact that I wasn’t a believer that his power would magically re-appear. Sure, chances are he’s going to steal 30+ bases and score 100+ runs, but that’s the kind of production you can get a little later on in the draft. J-Roll has been plagued by some bad luck this season and has had pretty consistent numbers but is just not hitting the ball for hits. He’s got a pretty horrendous OPS (.657) and I’m not too sure that will climb a whole lot more than .700. If you were to ask me what I think of Rollins right now, I’d consider him a buy low. He’s going to score over 100 runs in that offense and he should steal 30+ bases and if you figure that out, it comes to about the same as he’s been. Since his BABIP is low, expect that average to raise up a wee bit.

Robinson Cano- Cano took off this season like he was out to show all of you wrong who ever doubted him. Then he slowed a bit and now he’s remaining pretty consistent. He’s hitting .305 on the season. I feel a strong resurgence from the Yankees in the coming months and I think a big part of that will be Cano. Mark him down for another 8-10 HR while hitting about .300.

Nick Markakis- Another homie who’s been pretty mediocre this season and especially in the last month. He’s hit .276 with 2 HR in the month of July and currently has a grand total of 10 on the season. Over the last three years, Markakis has had a better first half than he has second half (in less ABs) and I suspect he’ll end with about 20 HR, 100 R, 100 RBI, while hitting around .290-.300. Not bad for a guy who’s not hitting for the power he should be.

Joe Blanton- 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K. Blanton’s always been kind of blah. He had one season with an ERA under 3.60 and during that season he had an FIP of 4.43, suggesting he was pitching a ways over his head. His K/9 is up a bit this year and his BB/9 is down but that K rate has never been that high in his career over an extended amount of time so I’m not expecting it to stay like that. His current FIP suggest he’s a 4.72 ERA guy and I believe it.

Rich Harden- It’s kind of funny that I just realized that his name is a little inappropriate. Ya know, what’s the full version of the name “Rich?” Now what’s another name for Richard? Yeah, say the full name out loud. Ok, I’m done being immature for a second. So far this year, Harden’s been like your first car. When he’s working properly, he’s sufficient but when he’s not working properly, he’s really not. I don’t even want to give analysis on him, he’ll probably just tear his jaw muscle or something and be out for the rest of the season.

Jayson Werth- 2/3, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 3 BB. I keep telling you he’s going to be a 30/20 guy!

Prince Fielder- 2/4, Too bad he plays in the same league as the machine or he’d probably win an MVP award.

Miguel Cabrera- He’s been rather quiet considering he was a lot of people’s MVP winner in the preseason. Last season in the second half he went absolutely bananas and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he did it again.

Cliff Lee- Back to back CG’s with one earned in each. He’s had a pretty miserable offense behind him all season which can account for a lot of the losses. I’m not so sure he’ll get to 15 wins this year and if he can’t do that, you can count him out of the Cy Young race.

Brett Cecil- Pitched against Lee and had the better game (unless your league is ridiculous and counts CGs as a stat.) 7 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 9 K. He’s a high upside, rookie so he’s going to be hit or miss. I wouldn’t have any issues if you wanted to take a shot at owning him and play the matchups well. But, I also have no problems if you own Armando Galarraga since it’s not my team you’re ruining.

Brian McCann-2/3, 1 HR, 4 RBI. I wonder if his doctor prescribed him with David Ortiz’s eye drops to go along with those nifty safety glasses he wears. Well, no complaints from me, you’re the effin man, dude. If you own McCann, be happy. If you don’t own McCann, be happy you didn’t draft a catcher high in the draft.

Josh Beckett- 8 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 7 K. Beckett, a few more starts like this and Felix Hernandez will be marking off one more dude off his Cy Young competition list. Ian, you’re showing your inner homer. Excuse me?

C.J. Wilson- Got the save as Frank Francisco battles pneumonia. Nothing exciting about this at all.

Albert Pujols- What? Albert only had one base hit today?

Wandy Rodriguez- Is it time to believe Wayrod is for real yet? If for real you mean a 3.50 ER pitcher with an 8ish K/9, then yes. It is time! He’s got a few stinkers left in him this year.

Gordon Beckham- I’ll admit, I wasn’t a fan of Beckham earlier on. But his recent play has really opened my eyes and shown me that he may actually be ownable. Don’t rule out a large slump though. After all, he’s a rookie. But a good rookie. See what I did there? I got you all in a pickle.

Justin Upton- Hit his third triple of the season. I am telling you, the dude can do it all. Just wait until he becomes a perennial first rounder and you’ll thank me.

Chad Gaudin- Alright, I’m officially pissed. Gaudin the recent K machine + the Marlins (a notoriously free swinging team) + Petco park = Gaudin lights out? Wrong. How about 6 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 3 K. Ugh. How dare you.

I’ve had it for tonight. Eff you Gaudin.

RB Rankings! 1-10

1. Adrian Peterson- Yo Adrian! Arguably the most talented player in the NFL, Peterson continues his quest to become a 2,000 yard rusher, joining Barry Sanders and O.J. Simpson among few others. In 2008, Peterson rushed for 1,760 yards, leading the NFL in YPG. Peterson should be the highest scoring running back in standard leagues. Since he does have a large frame for a running back, be aware that he could easily fall victim to more knee and lower body issues. Projection: 1,730 rush yards, 160 reception yards and 15 TDs on the season. Basically the same as last season.

2. Maurice Jones-Drew- While he’s never topped 1,000 yards rushing, Jones-Drew has always been a valuable fantasy option. Over the short (pun intended) career, MJD has been sharing duties with Fred Taylor, who has since left via free agency. Maurice should see over 1,000 yard rushing and near the same amount of reception yards and could account for 15+ TDs this season. Projection: 1,250 yards rushing, 650 reception yards, 18 TDs.

3. Michael Turner- Always shadowed by LaDainian Tomlinson, Turner was finally given his time in the spotlight and quickly made the best of it, rushing for over 200 yards in his first game with the team and again in the last regular season game. Turner received the vast majority of the carries in 2008 with 375 and that causes a bit of an injury concern, but I am confident he’ll remain healthy enough to be the #3 running back on our list. Projection: 1,480 yards rushing, 68 yards receiving and 14 TDs.

4. Steven Jackson- Jackson is quickly becoming the Rich Harden of football. He’s a guy you love when he’s healthy and he’s a guy that breaks your heart usually once a season. Surprisingly, Jackson only missed four games last season and finished with 432 yards rushing in his last four games. Jackson is one of the most talented backs in the league but his biggest problem is durability. If Jackson were completely healthy, he’d be considered for the top spot in the league. But something (track record) tells me that’s kinda unlikely. Projection: 1,390 yards rushing, 350 yards receiving, 12 TDs.

5. Matt Forte- If an all around running back is your forte, then Forte’s your dude. In his first season, Forte exceeded expectations by putting up 1,715 all-purpose yards and scoring 12 TDs. Forte averaged only 3.9 YPC on an offense in need of a QB and the Bears got that in Jay Cutler. The fact that the Bears don’t have too many great receivers for Cutler to throw to, a season mirroring last year seems highly plausible for Forte. Projection: 1,220 yards rushing, 560 yards receiving, 12 TDs.

6. LaDainian Tomlinson- As much as I think LT is done, I have a feeling he’s not quite ready. After being the best RB in the land for years, LT fizzled out with injuries and a 3.8 YPC. Even in a down year, LT put up numbers you wouldn’t see from half of the league. LT’s 3 90+ yard games to finish the season showed he still can be effective. Projection: 1,200 yards rushing, 400 yards receiving, 13 TDs.

7. Clinton Portis- Portis topped 1,400 yards rushing for the fourth time in his career last year, averaging 4.3 YPC. While he’s always been an elite talent at running back when healthy, Portis tends to miss games every now and then or has a nagging injury. He’s been healthy the last two seasons and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it from him again this season. The only reason I have him ranked this low is because of injury concerns. Projection: 1,350 rushing yards, 330 reception yards, 13 TDs.

8. Steve Slaton- Despite being undersized for a running back, Slaton put up a 4.8 YPC average totalling 1,282 yards with 10 total TDs. There’s really nobody else in Houston that can take carries from Slaton and I expect him to be a viable fantasy option this season. Projection: 1,230 rushing yards, 440 receiving yards, 11 TDs.

9. Chris Johnson- In his first full season, Johnson totalled 1,488 yards with 10 scores. The 4.9 YPC ranked 3rd among RBs with over 200 carries. Of the backs that rushed for over 4.5 YPC (with more than 200 carries)  Johnson had the second lowest number of 20+ yard rushes and the fourth lowest 40+ yard rushes. He’s consistently making decent gains and while he has crazy awesome speed, he’s not totally been the HR threat you’d expect. With fatty LenDale White in town, Chris will lose a lot of his carries, but he’ll still remain valuable in fantasy football in 2009. Projection: 1,280 yards rushing, 300 yards receiving, 9 TDs.

10. Brian Westbrook- I’m going against my better judgement here because Westbrook has all of the talent in the world, but he’s one hiccup away from blowing a knee. The Eagles went out and grabbed LeSean McCoy in the draft and seem to like him as the next running back in Philly. Westbrook can be a top five running back when healthy. The key words: ‘when healthy.” He recently had ankle surgery and any position that uses ankles like running back, you’d got to be cautious of. Projection: 970 rushing yards, 500 reception yards and 12 TDs.

Jason Marquis: All Star

Jason Marquis is an all-star.  I repeat, Jason Marquis is an all star.  If you saw this coming before the season good for you.  It was you and 35 of Jason’s closest family and friends.  There is just no way anyone could have seen this coming, but at the break he leads the NL with 11 wins.  The question Marquis owners have to be asking themselves is will it last?

I doubt it.  He really hasn’t pitched that well.  His ERA sits 22nd in the NL, but that does come from pitching at Coor’s.  Marquis though has always been a first half pitcher.  In 2007 he posted a 3.67 ERA in the first half for the Cubs, only to fall off with a 5.73 after the break.  2005 was very similar, though not as bad.  Jason has though been able to have a strong second half.

In 2004 he posted a 3.52 ERA post ASB.  That was Marquis’ best year posting a 3.71 ERA on the year with 15 victories.  That is really the only year his second half has been better than his first.  For his career his second half ERA is nearly a run worse than his first half ERA.

The one thing that Jason has going for him is that this is his best year FIP wise.  He usually sits mid to high 4′s, but this year posts a 4.07.  ZiPS doesnt trust him too much in the second half putting him at a 4.68 FIP, with a 4.89 ERA for the second half.

Personally I would be happy with what I have gotten and move on.  Marquis is a decent first half pitcher but almost always struggles in the second half.  I wouldn’t cut him, but I would try to trade him while he is hot, and be very quick with the hook in the second half.  If you see a bad game or two in a row, the real Jason Marquis might be showing its ugly head.

I guess the question you have to ask yourself is: Do you trust some fancy computer or do you trust Jason Marquis?  I will take the computer.

QB Rankings!

Well, I’m in a league that is extremely impatient and is already participating in and offline draft and it’s the All Star break so I figured I’d get a bit of football in. Here’s my top 10 QB for yearly leagues (with guys on bye weeks the same time so you know not to take them as a backup.)

1. Drew Brees-Brees has been an elite QB for the past few years and I don’t see him slowing down any time soon. He’s thrown for over 4400 yards the last three season and threw over 5000 last season with 34 TDs and 17 INTs. It also should be noted that at home, Brees put up a QB rating of 115.1, throwing 23 TDs and 5 INTs. His home schedule is as follows: Cincinnati, Miami, Detroit, NY Jets, NY Giants, Atlanta, Carolina, New England, Dallas and Tampa Bay. Kind of a tough schedule, but that leaves a fair amount of easier teams on away games. Houston, Oakland, Philly, Buffalo, Miami, St. Louis, Tampa, Washington, Atlanta and Carolina. It’s not a very easy schedule, but I think Brees is good enough to be a solid fantasy contributor. Other QBs on a BYE: Cutler, Rodgers, Rivers. Luckily, you probably won’t own them if you own Brees.

2. Tom Brady-Last season, the Patriots seemed like sure fire Superbowl participants up until the first game of the season where Tom Brady was eliminated for the  with severe knee damage that required surgery. It’s been almost an entire year and Brady should be back to top form this season. By top form, I don’t mean 50 TDs, I mean 30-36 TDs. If not for the Patriots semi-rough schedule, he could be the top QB this year. Don’t be surprised if he is, I just don’t want to rank a guy coming off major surgery as the top anything. Unless it’s Albert Pujols, then I’d likely rank him top everything. Other QBs on a BYE: Carson Palmer, Matt Cassel, Ben Roethlisberger, Byron Leftwich/JoshFreeman/Some random vagrant, Jason Campbell.

3. Peyton Manning- Manning also had a bit of a down year, putting up four less TDs than his previous two seasons with a QB rating at it’s lowest since 2002. Manning lost his go to guy in Marvin Harrison but still has Reggie Wayne and the emerging Anthony Gonzalez. I expect another fairly consistent season with 4000+ yards and roughly 30 TDs from Manning. Other QBs on a BYE: Tony Romo, Chad Pennington, Shaun Hill/Alex Smith.

4. Aaron Rodgers- Last year in his first full season, Rodgers went only one game without passing or rushing for a touchdown and had a QB rating of 93.8 on the season. Expect Rodgers to get more comfortable with his role as well as his receivers in 2009 and possibly put up numbers around those of the previously mentioned field generals. Other QBs on a BYE: Jay Cutler, Drew Brees, P. Rivers.

5. Kurt Warner- Kurt Warner is an old dude, but can still throw the ball and plays for a super pass happy offense. I can see Warner putting up better passing numbers than Rodgers, but being far less mobile and more injury prone. You also have to remember that the Cardinals have a former first round draft pick sitting on the bench in Matt Leinart, although Warner will have to be the guy if this team wants to make it back to the playoffs again. Other WBs on a BYE: Matt Ryan, Jake Delhomme, Donovan McNabb.

6. Tony Romo-Romo lost arguably the most talented receiver in the NFL in Terrell Owens. Luckily for him, Jerry Jones bought very high on another guy to take his place in Roy Williams.Even though Brandon Jacobs doesn’t agree, I think Tony Romo will be a very useful QB for the upcoming season, even with losing his star receiver. You have to remember he’s got one of the better tight ends in the NFL and apparently he favors him strongly. Maybe his ditching of Jessica Simpson will keep him a little less distracted this season. Mark Romo down for 4000+ yards and 26-30 TDs. Other QBs on a BYE: Peyton Manning, Chad Pennington, Shaun Hill/Alex Smith.

7. Phillip Rivers-P. Rivers has all the tools in the world to be a successful QB in the NFL and in his third season as a full time starter, put up 4,000 yards with a 35/15 turnover ratio. If you were to ask me what I expect of Rivers (Although you shouldn’t because I will tell you anyways)  I would say he can get near 4,000 yards, but I’m not counting on another 35 TDs. Should LT remain healthy, he will take away the need to pas the ball as often and add another threat to the field. Other QBs on a BYE: Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees.

8. Donovan McNabb-McNabb has always been one of those dudes that when healthy, can provide you with top five talent. The problem with that is that he’s not always healthy. Last year, McNabb was healthy and provided just mediocre stats. He had a QB rating of 86.4, threw for 3916 yards and had a TD/turnover ratio of 25/16. Now that I think about it, McNabb’s always been about this good but he does have some pretty huge games once in a blue moon. I surely wouldn’t be excited owning him, but I wouldn’t be disappointed. Other QBs on a BYE: Kurt Warner, Matt Ryan, Jake Delhomme.

9. Jay Cutler- Cutler has always played in a run first offense in the NFL, except that offense couldn’t really run. He had decent receivers in 2008 in Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall and now that he’s moved to Chicago, he’s got the man that can really only return kicks in Devin Hester. Luckily, Cutler’s got up and coming tight end Greg Olsen(don’t be surprised if he’s the team’s leading receiver.) You can safely expect Cutler to throw for around 3,800 yards and 25-29 TDs. Cutler also has upside in his mobility and if he can’t find a receiver open, you know he’s going to move. Other QBs on a BYE: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, P. Rivers.

10. Matt Ryan-Atlanta was a run first team last year with Matt Ryan learning and Michael Turner burning (clever, eh?) They went and added a large endzone target in Tony Gonzalez as well. While he only threw for over 300 yards twice last season, he remained fairly decent (considering he was a rookie with no NFL experience) controlling his INTs. If you’re in keeper or dynasty leagues, I think Ryan moves up a ways. But for this season, I’m still not feeling confident enough to rank him above Jay Cutler’s upside and McNabb’s NFL experience. Other QBs on a BYE: Kurt Warner, Jake Delhomme, Donovan McNabb.

All-Star Break Decisions – NL Hitters

It’s the All-Star break, and its about that time that you realize if your fantasy team is a winner, a loser, or a contender.  This is your time to make a move.  Whether it be for the future in a keeper or franchise league.   Or for the now if you are going for that coveted championship.  This three day baseball break could be the time to evaluate your team’s season.

To help you out I am going to discuss some players that are either hot, not or just having odd seasons, and what I think you should do going forward.

Milton Bradley has been a mess since coming to Chicago.  He has been booed, he has been ejected, he has been hurt, he has done cartwheels.

He has done just about everything, except hit.  He has 6 HR’s, a .243 avg and only 21 RBI’s.  This was not expected from the man who led the AL in OPS last year and entering the NL’s highest scoring team from 2008.  The OBP is still there at .379, but nothing else seems to be.  Milton says “He’s back”, and hopefully he is.  He has been better of late, but still needs days off.

I would try to move Milton.  To me he doesn’t play enough to be a fantasy guy.  He is always hurt, and needs lots of days off.  Plus he hasn’t had a big injury yet.

Jimmy Rollins is an odd one.  Just two years removed from winning the MVP, is looking more like a journey man SS than an MVP caliber player.  His speed seems to be down.  His SB% is way down from last year, he only has one triple on the year compared to 9 all of last year.  He is hitting more HR’s than last year, but still no where near where he was in 2006-2007.  His BABIP is a bit low, but that could be in part because of the loss of speed.

If it were me I would be looking to shop Rollins for a better SS, or at least one having a better year.

David Wright is having some year.  Only 5 HR’s thus far for a guy with 4 straight years of 26 or more is never good for your fantasy team.  Wright does go into the break with a .324 avg, so he isn’t killing your fantasy team.  The main question is though will the power come around?  He has one HR since June 10, and even his avg is way down sitting at only .285 during that time frame.

David Wright is way too young to be “done”.  Nothing is going right for the Met’s right now.  He is sitting at a .430 BABIP which is artificially inflating his .avg and that’s going to regress.  The last person to have a season of over 300 AB’s with a .400 plus BABIP was Jose Hernandez back in 2002 and he had a .405.

If you are in a keeper league I would hold onto Wright unless you get a massive offer.  If you are in a regular league I would move him for someone who will give you production now.  Wright’s power might come back in the second half, but nothing thus far is pointing to it being a good year for Wright.

Alfonso Soriano does not like to hit anything but a FB.  As a Cub fan I know this first hand.  Its horrible to watch him.  How it took MLB this long to catch up to Soriano I will never know, but they finally have.  For his career Soriano only has positive production against fastball’s, and cutter’s.  For sliders and curve balls he has been bad, especially with the slider.  Finally though pitchers are picking up on this.  Soriano is one of only two full time players who are seeing less than 50% fastball’s (the other is Ryan Howard).  Soriano has now gone from being one of the better bats in baseball, to being actually below average.  All because he isn’t getting as many fastballs.

I would look to move Soriano.  If this keeps up, he won’t be worth hardly anything.  Unless Soriano fixes something or learns how to hit a slider his days as a superstar could be numbered.

Chris Young likes to swing the bat real hard.  He likes to hit home runs, and has amassed quite a few over the past two years, but this year the power numbers are down… way down.  When I think Chris Young, I think of Corey Patterson.  Yes Chris does know what a ball looks like but outside of that they seem to be very similar.  Swing for the fences, play solid D, strike out a ton.  If Young is the C-Patt version 2.0 it might be time to move him.  Young like Soriano cannot hit a slider, and this year cannot hit a fastball either.

I have never been a fan of Young.  I always felt he was just waiting for the league to figure him out.  Maybe they have.  He will never hit for a high average, and doesn’t run a lot either.  I would get what you can for him and move on.

Russell Martin used to hit extra base hits.  Now it seems as though he is comfortable just staying at first.  Russell only has 12 extra base hits on the season.  His IsoP is sitting at a .057, which means that Juan Pierre is hitting for more power than Martin.  At least he is getting on base, he isn’t killing you in the K department, and still taking plenty of walks, so the eye is still there.  I don’t know about that power though.

Both of Martin’s home runs have come in the last month, but even so he only has one double since the beginning of June.  I would hold onto Martin just because you will be selling low.  You might try to buy low on him as well, but it would be a risk.  His power has gone down the last three years, but it has never been at Juan Pierre like levels.  I wouldn’t consider him an elite catcher anymore, but I also wouldn’t call him a bust just yet.  Be patient, but be cautious.  I would pick up another catcher if I were you.

Oliver, do you need glasses?

What the hell happened to Oliver Perez?

Oliver has never been a great pitcher.  He has never been a 12 million dollar pitcher either, but thats what the Met’s gave him this past offseason inking him to a 3 year 36 million dollar contract.

Perez has been a fantasy workhorse the past two years.  Winning 15 games in 07 and 10 in ’08 to go with ERA’s of 3.56 and 4.22.  He was striking out around 8.5/9 innings as well.  So what happened?

Well he is walking a ton of batters.  He is walking over a batter per inning.  Why all of a sudden can he not find the zone.  Want to know the crazy part?  His zone% is only 1% lower than it was last year.  So for every 100 pitches he is throwing only 1 more is outside the zone than was in 2008.  Even crazier is his first pitch strike percentage is actually up from 2008 as well.

So again.  What the hell happened to Oliver Perez.

Well for starters his velocity is down.  If you look at his fastball velocity its down nealry two MPH from 2008.  His slider is down about a half MPH, and his changeup is actually up, its up 3.6 MPH.  There is almost no difference in speed between his fastball and his changeup.  He is throwing the changeup more so that leads me to believe the computer is reading some of his fastballs as changeups, so his fastball is actually probably even slower.  This isnt good.

But still.  Why all the walks?

Well batters are only swinging at 13.1% of the pitches outside the zone.  Which if he had enough innings would put him as the worst in baseball.  In fact with pitchers of at least 20 innings this year he is the only one below 16%.  Perez usually sits around 21-22%.

His slider has been worth .98 and .25 wSL/C the last two years.  That means that for every 100 sliders it was worth that many runs of production.  Which over the last few seasons has saved him 9.9 runs.  Well in 2009 that wSL/C number is listed as -2.71.  Which is, to be kind, really freaking bad.  All of his pitches are bad, but this one stands out the most.

He cant get hitters to swing at it.  Which leads to more balls, which leads to more walks.  Along with those balls, means more fastballs, which means more hits.  His avg against is up nearly 60 points compared to the last two years to nearly .300.

Basically what I am saying is if you have Perez, you might want to drop him.  If Perez is a FA, keep a really close eye on him.  If his velocity comes back, and he starts getting more swings outside of the zone, he could be a savior come crunch time.

Then again the Mets offense isnt very good right now either, so wins could be hard to come by.  Regardless he is a player I would keep a very close eye on, and wouldn’t start him at all right now.

The Magic Wand

Thank God I'm not and Astros fan. Those Jerseys make sick to my stomach.

Once upon a time, there was a starting pitcher for the Houston Astros named Wandy Rodriguez. Wandy Rodriguez was a little slow to make himself known in the National league, finally showing his true potential in 2008 around the ripe old age of 29, putting up a 3.54 ERA with 131 Ks in 137.1 innings pitched. It seems like ages since that time and Wandy Rodriguez has since shown that he means nothing but business (most of the time) by putting up numbers and following trends very similar to his 2008 season. Ok, no more half-assed story. All of Wandy’s peripherals are in line with his previous seasons except for a few things that could be worrisome. Wayrod’s K/9 is down a minute amount while his BB/9 is up as well and his FIP suggests he’s pitched like a guy with a mid-high 3 ERA as opposed to the 2.96 he’s posted thus far. If you were to ask me how I think Wandy will finish the season, I’d respond by sharing with you that I think he will finish in the range he finished in last season as I believe we’ve seen the best he has to offer and we also see the worst he has to offer when he gives up seven earned in any given start. If you own Wayrod, you’re probably not getting a ton of offers or you’re not getting blown away with these offers, so I can’t really advise you to buy or sell. My best advice is to wait for a good offer or just hold onto him since you have for this long.

Lance Berkman- I remember hearing just about everyone and their second cousin panicking about Berkman’s slow start and I also remember us mentioning improvement when we put up our first basemen rankings. He’s still got a BABIP a bit lower than his average and has a nine game hit streak currently, so I’m expecting more improvement over the course of the season where he may end with a line of .280, 33 HR, 95 RBI and maybe toss in a couple more stolen bases.

Andrew McCutchen- Presently hitting .290 and I once said he = Dexter Fowler. If McCutchen were to have 100 more at bats, the numbers would be very similar to Fowler with a bit better average. I still think Fowler ends up with more stolen bases on the season and very easily could have better all around numbers besides average. Gotta remember that McCutchen plays for the Pirates and they are the sucks.

Martin Prado- Hit .316 in AAA for the Braves in 2007 and is currently hitting .324 in Kelly Johnson‘s absence. So, if you think you’re one category away from winning your league and have Kelly Johnson as your starting 2B, I’d grab Prado.

Milton Bradley- 0/4, 1 K, hitting .236. After he struck out, he broke the bat over Bobby Cox‘s head who then put the wrong reliever in for the save.

Rafael Soriano- See above.

Troy Tulowitzki- I love you. Even though you nearly ruined two of my fantasy baseball teams, you’ve really improved your game as of late. I actually received a trade offer for you, which I rejected on the spot. Don’t let me down, homes.

Ross Detwiler- Hey! He’s a rookie and he’s 0-5! Shocking! I hope my using many exclamation marks has helped you to realize that rookies mostly hurt more than they help!

Chad Gaudin- 6.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 7 K. How dare you be this talented, yet so wildly inconsistent. Gaudin is the Nicholas Cage of fantasy baseball. One day you’re like Cage in Adaptation and Leaving Las Vegas, the next you’re like Cage in The Wicker Man. The main difference is that Gaudin has already had more than three good performances in his career.

Max Scherzer- 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 BB, 9 K. Hello Mr. Less Inconsistent, But Sometimes Pretty Bad.

Dan Uggla- Hit his 16th home run on the season. Even on your good days, you still manage one hit, granted that one hit knocks in a handful of runs.

Chris Volstad- Volstad tosses a CG, allowing five hits, walking none and striking out six against the Giants. No wonder they’re looking for a big bat already. Be careful soon-to-be Giants power hitter, I hear Pablo Sandoval gets very territorial with his Double Cheeseburgers. Ok, I’ll give some advice on Volstad now that I’ve gone completely off track. Are you ready? Here is it….He’s just blah.

Ryan Sadowski- The only reason I’m mentioning him is because he’s getting me tons of hits on search engines. To all of you search engine-ites, Ryan Sadowski is boring and far more blah than Chris Volstad.

Ronny Cedeno- I hope to Christ you don’t own Cedeno. If you do, you’re not smart or are in an 8 team AL West League. It’s bad when Yuniesky Betancourt‘s offensive production is missed.

David Aardsma- 3 ER, BS. Aardsma, like any closer not named Brad Lidge in 2008 blew the save. I wouldn’t be worried at all.

Jayson Werth- You’re becoming another  hero of mine. Sure, you won’t make it to Justin Upton‘s level, but you’re trying. Werth has 19 home runs on the season and I’m still calling for a 30/20 from him this year which is Grady Sizemore lite.

Rodrigo Lopez- Left in the bottom of the fifth with shoulder inflammation. Hello Carlos Carrasco?

Zack Greinke- After seeing Greinke be amazing for the first part of the season, are you guys disappointed when he puts up starts where he gives up three earned, while striking out nine? I’m just happy he doesn’t get all anxietized.

Scott Kazmir- 6.1 IP, 7 ER. I’m amazed he made it out of the fifth. How many times have you seen him dominate hitters and barely pitch five innings? I’d tell you I like him as a buy low, but I’d be lying.

Tim Wakefield- 6 IP, 10 H, 1 ER, 8 K.  I spot started him today and I’m pretty happy about that. I think he must be trying to prove he’s worthy of being selected to the All Star game over Jered Weaver.

Oliver Perez- 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 BB, 2 K. The Ks are the opposite of what you’d think…Wait, it’s Oliver Perez. if you own him, you got off easy.

Andruw Jones- At the time of my writing this, he’s hit three home runs. I’m so glad Manny Ramirez came back when he did. I sat Jones for him in a deep league I’m in…..Ugh.

Defense and your fantasy team.

So if your leagues are like my leagues there are no points awarded for defense.  No points for an assist, no roto column for fewest errors.  Defense is essentially nonexistent in the fantasy world.  Or is it?

You would be surprised what a good defense can do for your pitching staff.  Just take a look at the Indians and the Reds.  If you look at the stat FIP (fielding independent pitching) or if you want to read a little more about it you can check it out here. it shows that the Reds staff and the Indians staff are “pitching” about the same.  Reds a little better at a 4.67 and the Indians just behind at a 4.76.  These are actually two of the worst FIP’s in the majors.  So what we are seeing here is that given a neutral defense their ERA’s would be very similar, and very near their FIP.  The Reds have a team ERA of 4.20 and the Indians have an ERA of 5.36.  The Reds go from a bottom 5 staff to a top 10 because of their defense and the Indians drop from a bottom 5 to the worst ERA in the majors.

Okay okay so what does this do for you?

So lets compare two pitchers from each team.  Carl Pavano for the Indians and Aaron Harang for the Reds.  Pavano right now has an FIP of 3.75, Harang has an FIP of 3.98.  So Pavano according to this if he had a neutral defense would actually be better than Harang, but when you look at their ERA’s its a difference of nearly 1.5 in favor of Harang (3.89 to 5.36).

Again what does this do for you?

Well if you are in a H2H points league like myself it could be the difference in about 20 points thus far this year.

Defense can change everything.  Just ask the Mariners and their new found OF defense.   Did Jarrod Washburn learn how to pitch all of a sudden overnight?  Or ask Kevin Millwood down in Texas.  Would you believe me that he is actually pitching worse in 2009 than he did in 2008, despite a 1.73 drop in ERA.  His defense has gotten much better thanks in large part to Elvis Andrus.

Should you base your team around defense?  No.  Later in your draft or even when looking on the waiver wire, a defense can make or break a player’s season, it can also make or break your fantasy season.