TE Rankings!

Everyone likes a tight end! I’ve got the top ten for you!

1. Jason Witten- With T.O. gone, Tony Romo can focus on Witten as his top guy. He’s had over 900 yards the last two seasons and it’s not at all a stretch do do so again.

2. Tony Gonzalez- T-Gonz had over 1,000 yards on a sketchy team last year. Now he’s gone to a QB who played well for being a rookie and a team that could use a large red zone target. I’m not saying he’ll get 1,000 yards again, but I don’t think 8 or 9 TDs is out of the question

3. Dallas Clark- With Peyton Manning throwing the ball around, almost all of the guys catching said passes will be valuable. Clark’s been a dependable option for years and this year should be no different.

4. Antonio Gates- Have we ever seen Gates ranked this low? With all of the emerging TEs, Gates moves down the rankings. The Chargers will be running the piss out of the ball but I suspect  Gates will be roughly the same as he is every season.

5. Owen Daniels- His receptions have increased every year he’s been in the league as well as his yards and Y/G. The Texas offense should be better with Steve Slaton developing in his second season. Daniels will get the yards, but AJ and Slaton may take the lion’s share of the TDs.

6. Greg Olsen- Gregory managed to be in the top ten in scoring in 2008 despite the shotty QB situation in Chicago. The Bears added Jay Cutler and still have no viable option in the passing game and Olsen should provide an excellent red zone target.

7. John Carlson- The Seahawks will be spreading the ball around quite a bit in 2009 with the addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh and a healthy Nate Burleson and possibly healthy Deion Branch. Carlson shined as a rookie and a talented player like that doesn’t go un-noticed.

8. Chris Cooley- Cooley benefits in Washington in the red zone as Santana Moss is a small target. Washington will likely be a run first offense so he may not rack up the yards, but should be a viable fantasy TE anyways.

9. Kellen Winslow- Winslow always seems to be hurt and moved to a team where Byron Leftwich may be the starting QB. Combine his durability with him playing for a new team with possible QB issues and you have him here. He’s got all of the talent in the world, but it’s unlikely he will show that talent.

10. Zach Miller- Miller put up 778 yards on a bad offense last year. His QB and top RB are a year older and Miller could easily rack up 700 yards and a few TDs on the season.

WR Rankings!

Here are the WR rankings for the 2009 season.

1. Larry Fitzgerald- Posted his second consecutive 1,400 yard season and third in the last four years while putting up 10 or more TDs in three of the last four as well. Usually receives 90+ catches per season so should be a good PPR option.

2. Randy Moss- I don’t think I really need to explain much. Healthy Tom Brady + Healthy Randy Moss = Fantasy gold. The only reason I have him here is due to Brady coming off injury. Moss could easily be the number one at season end.

3. Andre Johnson- Johnson is coming off a spectacular 2008 season where he put up 1,575 yards on 115 receptions and 8 TDs. All of this with his main QB injured for part of the season. Like the first two, AJ can move to the top of this list fairly easy and is a sure fire safe bet. Barring injury as always.

4. Calvin Johnson- The dude put up over 1,300 yards with 13 TDs in his second year in the league with poor QB play. He’s still probably going to have poor QB play, but will be a third year guy and you know what they say about third year WRs. As for his ceiling, see the rest of the guys above him.

5. Reggie Wayne- Reggie is about as consistent as they come and with the rest of the guys on this list, you’ll be seeing something that makes them less consistent than Mr. Wayne. Gotta love Peyton Manning’s main guy now that Marvin Harrison is really out of town.

6. Greg Jennings- In Aaron Rodgers’ first full season, Jennings put up over 1,200 yards with 9 TDs. He’s a threat on every play and should see his share of passes come his way. In 2008, he averaged 80 YPG. I’ll take that.

7. Steve Smith- Smith is already hurt but it may not be a big deal for his season debut. I like what Smith is able to do when healthy over the guys behind him. The big concern is his ability to stay healthy, however.

8. Anquan Boldin- Boldin missed four games in 2008 and still put up over 1,000 yards and 11 TDs on 89 receptions. He seems to have decided that he’s not getting anywhere in his contract talks and the trade talks have cooled. I’d be perfectly happy drafting  him here.

9. Roddy White- 2007: Sketchy QB play. 2008: Rookie QB. 2009: QB that put up a good rookie season and still put up solid numbers across the board. Roddy White seems like a sure fire guy to get you around 1,200 yards with 7+ TDs and at this point, I’m happy with that.

10. Marques Colston- It’s hard to think that a WR being thrown to by Drew Brees would be ranked so low. Colston should be putting up 1,200 ish yards and around 10 TDs. He’s another one of those guys that can shoot up the rankings very easily.

Forgetting Jarrod Washburn

If you drafted Jarrod Washburn in your draft that’s awesome for you.  If you picked him up early this season when he was pitching great, that’s fantastic.  If you picked him up last week because you haven’t paid enough attention and didn’t realize he was still available… you are me.

So now what do you do proud owner of a starting pitcher with all of one season in the last 6 years with an ERA under 4.32?  I would try like hell to trade him.

Washburn is having a fantastic year.  An ERA of 2.64 thus far, he has 8 wins, and has been very good while not getting much support from the Mariners thus far.  So you might think that going to a team with a much better offense like the Detroit Tigers would do him good.  Well I, for one, don’t think that’s going to happen.

Washburn for his career has given up HR’s at a rate of 8.5% of all fly balls, this year he is sitting at 6.4%.  That wouldn’t be a big deal to a GB pitcher but Washburn isn’t that.  Even being in a pitcher friendly park the last few years he has been 9.3, 8.0, and 8.9% respectively since 2006.  Since his HR rate is so low, his FIP has been decent thus far, sitting at a 3.76 which is a run lower than where it usually sits.  That number is totally thus far dependent on his HR rate.  His xFIP (which normalizes HR rates) currently sits at  4.69 which I think is a much better indicator of his true talent.  His LOB% is also quite high.  LOB% is the number of runners you allow on base that stay on base or get out.  Jarrod is currently sitting at 79.5%, he has hovered around the 70% mark the last three years.

There are other reasons why I expect Washburn to take a dive.  The fact he won’t be playing in front of Franklin Gutierrez will most certainly hurt him, and going to a hitter’s park rather than a pitcher’s park will bring him down as well.  The Tigers have a decent defense though.  Brandon Inge and Josh Anderson are fine defenders, but other than that they are a pretty neutral defense.  Washburn has been spoiled by Gutierrez and company in Seattle.

Washburn is a two start pitcher this week, so you have the chance to see what he can do before shipping him off, but you should do like the Mariners, and sell high, sell very high.

Trade Deadline!

Well, it’s August third and I figured I’d dig into the trades and the repercussions they could have on the fantasy side of things.

The Cincinnatti Reds acquired Scott Rolen in exchange for Edwin Encarnacion, Zach Stewart and Josh Roenicke- If you own either Rolen or Encarnacion, I wouldn’t really expect anything different than you’ve already gotten from each player.

White Sox acquired Jake Peavy for Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard, Dexter Carter, and Adam Russell- Peavy’s value could take a hit with this trade. He goes from one of the best pitchers parks in baseball, to one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. Not only that, but he’s moving from NL to AL where he’ll be facing a DH instead of the opposing pitcher. Peavy is a dominant pitcher as is, so I’m not expecting a nasty regression. I am expecting his ERA to climb at least a half a run and his HRs to climb a bit. With the move to the ChiSox, he will have a much better offense to back him and a pretty nasty end of the game bullpen. The Padres get some depth to their starting rotation in return and if Chad Gaudin and Kevin Correia can be successful in Petco, I probably can. Left handed.

Marlins acquire Nick Johnson for Aaron Thompson- Thompson likely doesn’t have relevance this year and Nick Johnson’s trade value won’t trade much with the move. He goes to a better lineup so you can maybe hope for a few increased stats. But, yeah. Whatever.

Twins acquire Orlando Cabrera for Tyler Ladendorf- O-Cab could get a bit of a boost in the Twins offense with Mauer and Morneau, but I’m not expecting a ton from him.

The Red Sox acquired Victor Martinez for Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, and Bryan Price- The acquisition of Victor Martinez for the Red Sox is a bit of a puzzler, but I guess it won’t hurt. V-Mart will probably split time between DH, catcher and 1B and should see a minimal boost to stats. Justin Masterson may be stretched out to start for the Indians later on this season and if that is the case, he could be an option for deeper leagues. He’s been wishy washy in his starting career in the MLB so we’ll have to see how it works out.

The Braves acquire Adam LaRoche from the Red Sox for Casey Kotchman- LaRoche has always been a second half hitter and he’s moving to a better supporting cast in Atlanta and a team that could very well be in the running for a wild card berth. He’s absolutely someone to keep an eye on if you’re in need of a power 1B.

The Phillies acquired Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco for Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Lou Marson, and Jason Knapp- Lee moves to the NL where he could put up some pretty stellar numbers. He should get the run support he was missing in Cleveland which should drive his win total up a bit. I think the move only makes Lee more valuable. On the other end, I’m not quite sure what Cleveland has planned for these guys but it’s surely something I’d keep an eye on.

The Mariners acquired Ian Snell and Jack Wilson for Jeff Clement, Ronny Cedeno, Nathan Adcock, Brett Lorin, and Aaron Pribanic- Snell may be the only player with fantasy relevance of these dudes. Change of scenery + amazing OF defense + favorable pitcher’s park = fantasy value? I’m keeping an eye on this situation. Jeff Clement should have catcher eligibility in your fantasy leagues and if he gets a September call up, he may provide some decent value at the position.

The Tigers acquired Jarrod Washburn for Luke French and Mauricio Robles- Washburn is was the product of a stellar defense and pitchers park and is now going to a pitchers park with less stellar defense. I don’t think he’ll be as good as he has been, but I think he still could be useful in most leagues. Luke French is a 23 year old version of Washburn and may be in the starting rotation. Could he be the next Washburn? I don’t think exactly, but he may be useful. Keep watch over this situation as well.

The Cardinals acquired Matt Holliday for Brett Wallace, Shane Peterson, and Clayton Moretnsen- Holliday has been hitting will since his move back to the NL. Maybe he’s just an NL hitter? Maybe it’s the fact that he’s hitting anywhere near Pujols in a lineup. I’d consider Holliday to have a better second half than he did first. Which ain’t really a bad thing. Brett Wallace may not be up this year and if he is, it may be a September deal. The dude can hit and can’t field for balls, but that doesn’t matter to us armchair GMs, right?

The Dodgers acquired George Sherrill for Josh Bell and Steve Johnson- Sherrill went from the closer in Baltimore to setting up one of the best closers in LA. I think if anything were to happen to Broxton, Sherrill could be in line for saves. Over in Bmore, Jim Johnson could be in line to get the saves, but keep and eye on Danys Baez and possibly Koji Uehara.

As you can see, there aren’t a lot of fantasy relevant moves, but there also some that could have a big impact.