Forgetting Jarrod Washburn

If you drafted Jarrod Washburn in your draft that’s awesome for you.  If you picked him up early this season when he was pitching great, that’s fantastic.  If you picked him up last week because you haven’t paid enough attention and didn’t realize he was still available… you are me.

So now what do you do proud owner of a starting pitcher with all of one season in the last 6 years with an ERA under 4.32?  I would try like hell to trade him.

Washburn is having a fantastic year.  An ERA of 2.64 thus far, he has 8 wins, and has been very good while not getting much support from the Mariners thus far.  So you might think that going to a team with a much better offense like the Detroit Tigers would do him good.  Well I, for one, don’t think that’s going to happen.

Washburn for his career has given up HR’s at a rate of 8.5% of all fly balls, this year he is sitting at 6.4%.  That wouldn’t be a big deal to a GB pitcher but Washburn isn’t that.  Even being in a pitcher friendly park the last few years he has been 9.3, 8.0, and 8.9% respectively since 2006.  Since his HR rate is so low, his FIP has been decent thus far, sitting at a 3.76 which is a run lower than where it usually sits.  That number is totally thus far dependent on his HR rate.  His xFIP (which normalizes HR rates) currently sits at  4.69 which I think is a much better indicator of his true talent.  His LOB% is also quite high.  LOB% is the number of runners you allow on base that stay on base or get out.  Jarrod is currently sitting at 79.5%, he has hovered around the 70% mark the last three years.

There are other reasons why I expect Washburn to take a dive.  The fact he won’t be playing in front of Franklin Gutierrez will most certainly hurt him, and going to a hitter’s park rather than a pitcher’s park will bring him down as well.  The Tigers have a decent defense though.  Brandon Inge and Josh Anderson are fine defenders, but other than that they are a pretty neutral defense.  Washburn has been spoiled by Gutierrez and company in Seattle.

Washburn is a two start pitcher this week, so you have the chance to see what he can do before shipping him off, but you should do like the Mariners, and sell high, sell very high.

Jason Marquis: All Star

Jason Marquis is an all-star.  I repeat, Jason Marquis is an all star.  If you saw this coming before the season good for you.  It was you and 35 of Jason’s closest family and friends.  There is just no way anyone could have seen this coming, but at the break he leads the NL with 11 wins.  The question Marquis owners have to be asking themselves is will it last?

I doubt it.  He really hasn’t pitched that well.  His ERA sits 22nd in the NL, but that does come from pitching at Coor’s.  Marquis though has always been a first half pitcher.  In 2007 he posted a 3.67 ERA in the first half for the Cubs, only to fall off with a 5.73 after the break.  2005 was very similar, though not as bad.  Jason has though been able to have a strong second half.

In 2004 he posted a 3.52 ERA post ASB.  That was Marquis’ best year posting a 3.71 ERA on the year with 15 victories.  That is really the only year his second half has been better than his first.  For his career his second half ERA is nearly a run worse than his first half ERA.

The one thing that Jason has going for him is that this is his best year FIP wise.  He usually sits mid to high 4′s, but this year posts a 4.07.  ZiPS doesnt trust him too much in the second half putting him at a 4.68 FIP, with a 4.89 ERA for the second half.

Personally I would be happy with what I have gotten and move on.  Marquis is a decent first half pitcher but almost always struggles in the second half.  I wouldn’t cut him, but I would try to trade him while he is hot, and be very quick with the hook in the second half.  If you see a bad game or two in a row, the real Jason Marquis might be showing its ugly head.

I guess the question you have to ask yourself is: Do you trust some fancy computer or do you trust Jason Marquis?  I will take the computer.