Fantasy Bargains

Fukudome is finally paying off.

This group of players are performing above and beyond their expectations, and are currently owned in less then 60% of Yahoo leagues. If they are still available in your league, this may be a good time to go out and get them and ride them out until they stop hitting.

Kosuke Fukudome-59% owned-Fukudome is having a much better sophomore season in the major leagues hitting .311 with 5 HR and 4 SB. His OPS is sitting at .950.

Michael Cuddyer-54% owned-Cuddyer is looking more and more like the player that hit 24 HR’s and drove in 109 back in 2006. He has 8 HR’s and 32 RBI now while looking at career highs in OBP and SLG%.

Ben Zobrist-48% owned-Zobrist is good for multiple reasons. He has a little power, a little speed and he is eligible to play SS and OF, a rare combination. He should also see much more stable playing time with the injury to Akinori Iwamura.

Jason Kubel-41% owned-Kubel has 5 HR and is hitting .340 on the season. He is also slugging over .900. Coming off a 20 homer 78 ribbie campaign last year, Kubel should top those totals easily this season.

Nick Johnson-35% owned-Nick the Stick is finally hitting the way everyone knew he was capable of. Hitting .337 with 4 HR and 26 RBI, he is definitely worth having in your lineup, at least until he gets hurt.

Rick Porcello-37% owned-If you didn’t read today’s daily notes, then you should check them out. Porcello has been outstanding, and the kid is still so young he can’t buy himself a beer after the game.

Brian Bannister-37% owned-In 7 starts this season, Bannister has given up 3 ER or less in 6 of them. He isn’t the sexiest pitcher out there, but he will grind out 6 innings for you and give his team a chance to win almost every game.

Carl Pavano-9% owned-On the surface Pavano’s numbers don’t look great. His 5.50 ERA is especially disgusting looking. However, take out his first start of the year where he went 1 inning and gave up 9 ER, and his ERA drops to a very respectable 4.11. He also has 46 K’s and only 13 BB in 55.2 IP.

That’s it. Look for a prospect watch tomorrow.

“Prospect”ing for Gold

Laporta is headed back to AAA.

Matt Laporta today joined the list of highly touted prospects that didn’t make the grade during their first trip to the major leagues. I see people all the time holding onto their #1 waiver priority waiting for that big name prospect to get called up. This strategy will most likely not pay off for you. Just this season, we have seen Laporta, Travis Snider,  Homer Bailey, Brett Cecil and Cameron Maybin. All of these guys are current or former top prospects. All of them are back at AAA now. We have also seen David Price come up and look sloppy in his first major league start. Does this mean they are never going to succeed? Probably not. It takes time to conquer the major leagues, and all of these kids are very capable. To be sure, there are other youngsters who have fared a little better this season. Colby Rasmus and Dexter Fowler are both holding down their jobs, albeit neither are playing like All Stars. SP Trevor Cahill has gone through 7 of his 9 starts giving up less then 3 ER. None of these guys, however decent they have been, are really worth owning in a standard fantasy league though. If you are playing in a dynasty or keeper league, then it is worth owning most of these guys. They will pay dividends eventually. But for those of you holding that #1 waiver waiting for Matt Wieters or Stephen Strasburg to appear on the scene and dominate your league, you have a better chance of finding gold in your backyard.

Biggest Fantasy Busts of 2009

Jose Reyes has flopped in 2009!

When looking for the biggest busts of the season, it isn’t all about stats. It is about how their performance is compared to their ADP. Some guys may not look too bad, but if they are putting up 8th round numbers and they are a 1st round pick, they certainly aren’t helping your teams any. Some of these guys should be dropped soon. Others you just have to wait out. At any rate, if you own any of these players, you need not wonder why your team is not winning.

Jose Reyes-SS-When listing the biggest busts of the season so far, it starts with Reyes. Ranked in the preseason top 5 by almost every ranking system out there, Reyes is on pace to put up his lowest career totals in SB, R, AVG, 2B, 3B and even HR’s and RBI. His BABIP is .310 which is right about normal for him. It isn’t a matter of bad luck, he is just under performing. For the sake of a lot of owners, Reyes needs to pick up his numbers quickly.

Jimmy Rollins-SS-Rollins is another top 15 hitter that just isn’t performing near his expectations. After 40 games, he is hitting .234 with 3 HR and 6 SB’s. That puts him on pace for around 12 HR and 25 SB’s. Not horrible, but not what you want from the guy you took in the 2nd to early 3rd round. In all fairness, Rollins has suffered from bad luck. His BABIP is almost 50 points lower then his career average, his LD% is down 4% and his HR/FB rate is down 3%. This seems to be something that will turn around in time.

BJ Upton-OF-After posting a 20/20 season in 2007, Upton’s power dropped in 2008. His SB’s totals shot up to over 40, however, and after a power surge in the 08 playoffs, Upton’s stock rose. He was drafted in the mid to late 2nd round in most leagues, and had high expectations coming into 2009. This season so far, Upton has not performed to those expectations. He does have 14 SB’s, and could end up with a career high in that category. But he only has 2 HR and 8 RBI. He also is batting .196. Like Rollins, Upton’s BABIP is much lower then his career average and he should start to turn it around soon.

David Ortiz-DH-David Ortiz is a little different from the others because most good fantasy baseball players avoided him in the drafts. Ortiz is getting up there in age. His numbers have been tailing off for a couple of years now. He has also had injury concerns. Even with all of this, his ADP was in the late 4th or early 5th round. Some people never learn. Ortiz now has 1 HR and 18 RBI on the season. He is batting .201 and is slugging a dismal .309. My advice for Ortiz owners would be to cut bait and get away from him while there is still time. He will never get back to the 40+ HR 120+ RBI that he once put up. I’d be shocked if he gets to 25 HR and 80 RBI this season.

Francisco Liriano-SP-Remember back in 2006? Francisco Liriano came onto the scene and became an overnight sensation in fantasy baseball. Now Liriano is the poster boy for how not to use young pitchers. He missed the entire 2007 season with an arm injury, and came back in 2008 to post respectable numbers. This year, owners flocked to him like he was the second coming of Johan Santana. Liriano was drafted as a top 20 SP, ahead of some pretty good names. His K/9 is down, BB/9 is up, he is giving up almost twice as many HR’s, and his owners are suffering. If you can trade Liriano for anything of value, do it.

Brad Lidge-RP-Lidge went through the entire 2008 season and postseason without blowing a single save. Fantasy owners rewarded him for that by making him the 4th RP drafted in most leagues. He has responded by blowing 4 out of 12 saves, including the last 2 days against the Yankees. His ERA is now over 9. His K/9 is down a little bit, but his real problem has been more hits and more walks then normal. Unless there is an injury issue, Lidge should see his ERA drop back down to earth. He will not put up the same numbers as last year, but at the closer position he is still serviceable until he is removed from the role.

Jon Lester-SP-I picked Lester as my preseason CY Young award winner in the American league. Boy was I wrong. He has allowed 2 ER or fewer in only 3 of his 9 starts this year. His K/9 is way up, and his BB/9 is about normal. He hasn’t been too lucky, with a BABIP of .386 compared to his career average of .314. I still have faith in Lester. I see him as a possible buy-low candidate. If an owner in your league is tired of dealing with Lester, try and get him on the cheap. I think you will look pretty smart by season’s end.

Scott Kazmir-SP-This was supposed to be Kazmir’s year. He was, on average, the 10th SP selected in drafts. He was recently placed on the disabled list, and that may partially explain his horrid numbers. His K numbers are down, his BB numbers are up. His WHIP is nearly 2, and his ERA is hovering around 8. This is clearly not what people expected when they drafted him in the 6th round. At the same spot, owners could have had the likes of Victor Martinez, Joey Votto or Chad Billingsley. Hopefully, the injury is not serious and Kazmir can get back on the hill in short order. My advice is to start looking for a replacement on your fantasy roster.

Keep in mind, that for every bust, there is a bargain player to take their palce. for Reyes and Rollins you can find a cheap Jason Bartlett or Asdrubal Cabrera. For every David Ortiz you can get a Russell Branyan, and for every Liriano or Lester, you can find a Zack Duke or Edwin Jackson. Fantasy Baseball is not usually won or lost on draft day. No one can predict what will happen to these players. It’s being out there daily, scouring the free agents and making smart moves that will win you your league.

For Real or Not For Real?

Almost two months into the season, and we see some unlikely names at the top of the standings. Are any of these teams this year’s Rays? Let’s examine a few of them and see what they are made of.

Milwaukee Brewers

This team made the playoffs last year with a very similar club. The loss of CC Sabathia and  Ben Sheets was huge, but they got Yovani Gallardo back from an injury and Dave Bush pitching better then he ever has. They have also only used 5 starting pitchers in their first 39 games, which is an impressive feat. Their bullpen, led by Trevor Hoffman has been pretty solid. Their offense took a major hit losing Rickie Weeks but they should have the bats to weather the storm.

The Verdict: If their SP can stay healthy then the Brewers should compete. They offered CC Sabathia 20 million to stay so ownership may have the extra cash to make a move between now and July 31st. I think the Brew Crew has the offense to remain a threat in the wild card and possibly the NL Central. For Real!

Texas Rangers

The Rangers have stormed to the top in the AL West and have done it mostly without the services of All-Star Josh Hamilton. Their pitching staff outside of Kevin Millwood has been mediocre at best. They are doing it with offense. Plain and simple. Ian Kinsler may be the best hitter this side of St Louis. Hank Blalock is reemerging as a power threat. Chris Davis is hitting homers at a pace equal to last season, and Andruw Jones is making the Dodgers look foolish for paying him to play somewhere else.

The Verdict: As good as the offense is, I don’t think the pitching will hold up. The Angels are starting to get healthy and before long will overtake them. Sorry Texas fans, but enjoy it while it lasts. Not For Real!

Kansas City Royals

This is a team that started out hot and are already showing signs that they can’t sustain it. Zack Greinke may be all-world, but they have also had Sidney Ponson and Kyle Davies make a combined 14 starts. That combination can’t possibly turn out good. They have only one everyday player hitting over .300 (Alberto Callaspo), and only one everyday player with more then 5 HR’s (Mike Jacobs). Their offense may be better then previous years, but it isn’t good enough.

The Verdict: The Royals don’t have enough offense or pitching to get the job done. Even in the weak AL Central the Royals will not be able to keep it together much longer. Not only can they not make the playoffs, but I’d be surprised if they finish over .500. Not For Real!

Toronto Blue Jays

These guys have the toughest road to the playoffs since they have to beat the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays to get there. Their offense has been solid in most departments. Aaron Hill and Marco Scutaro are playing much better then anyone could have hoped. Veterans Vernon Wells and Alex Rios are each doing their part, and Adam Lind is in the middle of a possible breakout season. The problem for the Jays is pitching. Other then Roy Halladay they are throwing guys out there that most people outside Toronto probably have not heard of.

The Verdict: I don’t believe that their young pitching can keep them ahead of the Yanks or Red Sox for long. If they were in the AL Central, I would give them a much higher chance of pulling it out. Not For Real!